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St Devil
Caldari
Defcon One
Phalanx Alliance
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Posted - 2007.06.23 19:15:00 -
[1]
I have the feeling that Invention has reached a good level of maturity.
Shouldn't CCP now publish the exact formula used to compute the chance of getting a T2 BPC?
Of course, you can find some guessed formulas in the forum, but depending on the one I used, I get 26% to 48% chance for a specific module. This leads me to some profits or not.
I think some transparency is recommended for CCP. Otherwise, one of those days, we will once more read that some people are more informed then others. I know this argument is not very subtle but it's not far away from what I hear or read each day.
I don't know if publishing this formula could have negative impacts on CCP business. They will have less freedom to change the rule at their wish, but that's also why I said that I think invention is rather mature and changes are therefore more related to fine-tuning of the invention mechanics than to a complete re-design.
As Invention has proven to work, it's now time to make it publicly accessible.
StD
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St Devil
Caldari
Defcon One
Phalanx Alliance
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Posted - 2007.06.25 10:14:00 -
[2]
I had nothing against the formula's hunt but something has changed these last weeks and all my invention jobs failed since then.
I was used to invent Large Shield Extender and Invulnerability Shield with a success rate of 40% (4/10). But I changed my research location to a place where I don't have standings and someone told me that Invention has been nesfed two patches ago.
I then searched for a new formula and found one that predicts me a reduced 26% chance of success. But even these 26% should have given me 2 BPC. Therefore before loosing additional expensive datacores, I would like to know if it's just bad luck or if it's also related to the jobs location (and my standings).
The best way to make me feel good about this is to know the Formula.
StD
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St Devil
Caldari
Defcon One
Phalanx Alliance
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Posted - 2007.06.28 12:38:00 -
[3]
Edited by: St Devil on 28/06/2007 12:37:36
Ok. Here am I !!! The king of misfortune.
Here are my skills and decryptor:
Caldari Encryption Method: 3
Hydromagnetic Physics: 4
Quantum Physics: 3
Item used: Basic (meta=1)
Decryptor Used: Interface Alignment Chart (chance factor: 0.4)
Item invented (or more exactly: not invented): Large Shield Extender, Invulnerability Field, Heat Dissipation Field, Ballistic Deflection Field, Photon scattering Field.
I made 5 copies of 300 runs of each of these 5 Items.
One or two weeks ago I get the needed Datacore to launch 8 invention jobs (5 Large shield Extender and 3 Invulnerability Field). I get 2 Large shield Extender II BPC and 2 Invulnerability Field II BPC of 19runs each.
Then came the Patch and I started the remaining Invulnerability Shield BPC, both failed.
And then Revelation II was deployed and since than I have launch my 15 remaining jobs all of them failed.
I found a formula in this forum that gives me a 26% chance of success with my current skills and decryptor.
I try to find with this value what was my chance to get 17 consecutive failing jobs.
Chance = (1-26%)^17 = 0.6% !!!!!!
No way, this is not possible !!! Something is wrong.
Can someone help me?
StD
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St Devil
Caldari
Defcon One
Phalanx Alliance
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Posted - 2007.06.29 11:49:00 -
[4]
@ChapterXIII: You're perfectly right, it sometime hurts to find yourself so stupid  .
I get to fast at creating my sheets and forget to unbind invention & manufacturing, this leads me to stupid behavior. Shame on me.
Thanks anyway for your math lesson ;).
StD
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